Happy Friday! In today’s email:

• The S&P 500 vs The World

• US Debt Crosses $35,000,000,000,000 (Trillion!!!)

• Federal Reserve Does Not Change Rates… Yet

• Reminder: Upgrade your subscription to unlock the full length weekly newsletter which includes: my portfolio updates, more market commentary and Weekly Q&A’s below

• Stock Market Recap For The Week (Week return as of market open, Friday August 2nd)

  • S&P 500 = -0.55%

  • Nasdaq = -1.43%

  • Dow Jones = -0.81%

The S&P 500 vs The World

The S&P 500 is the most common index people think of when they think of the stock market. The S&P 500 is the 500 largest companies listed on exchanges in the USA. Ever since the beginning of the stock market, there have been many times where the S&P 500 has been tested…

Just going back to the 1970s, the graph above shows all the crisis & events that have occurred. Well guess what? The S&P 500 averaged 10.83% during that time frame.

The 500 largest companies have experienced many times where people have said “this time it will not recover” or “this is the end”… yet the S&P did recover. The S&P did not fail. In 2024 we are hitting all time highs. In every test (historically) the S&P has not failed. Has it fallen in the short term? Yes. But over the long term, it is resilient.

What does this mean for the future? Well, no one knows. However, for me I can sleep well at night knowing through many, many, many times of crisis, the S&P 500 has recovered.

This does not mean only buy the S&P 500, because there are times where the S&P 500 has not been the best performing asset for an extended period of time, however I want to remind you that, historically, it has been hard to bet against the S&P 500 over the long term.

US Equity vs. International Equity 5-Year Monthly Rolling Returns (1/31/75-6/30/24) 

This is why it is important to have some diversification in your portfolio 🙂 

What is the takeaway? The S&P 500 (and stock market as a whole) has been through a lot in its time. However here we are, in 2024, hitting all time highs. This is why I personally find it hard to bet against the US stock market over the long term.

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They invest all their money in intangible assets like stocks, bonds, and crypto.

The solution - fine whiskey.

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US Debt Crosses $35 Trillion

US debt crossed over another trillion dollar milestone this past week. It appears the rate at which the US national debt is growing is not slowing down. If you want to watch our debt rise every second, do so here.

I made this post the other day on X to have some fun with this:

What is the takeaway? Debt seems to only be going in one direction… up.

Fed Does Not Change Rates

The FOMC met this week & decided to not change rates. However the CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 27.5% chance of a 25bps cut in September and a 72.5% chance of a 50bps cut in September (as of August 2nd). This is the next time the FOMC will meet.

They are predicting a ZERO PERCENT chance of rates staying the same in September. This will be interesting over the next 6 weeks.

If you want to see the predictions yourself, you can do so here.

What is the takeaway? The market is predicting a cut. What do you think?

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