The Week Ahead - October 20th

Introducing The Wall Street Rollup

Hello there!

My name is Harry, and I’m one of the four authors of The Wall Street Rollup that works around the clock to write about finance and investing.

We are a twice a week finance newsletter, sending newsletters out every Sunday evening that will get you ready for the week ahead, plus a Thursday morning newsletter to recap the latest finance news. We aggregate the most important finance headlines, earnings updates, and mergers & acquisitions into one easy to read newsletter.

Here’s the structure of our typical Sunday Newsletter:

• A look at the earnings and economic data coming up this week

• Earnings updates and recaps

• The most important headlines and stories you need to know

• The latest mergers & acquisitions

• Our Chart of the day

• Our favorite memes from the past few days

Let’s get into it!

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Stocks continue to march higher, with futures up marginally to start the week.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: GE Aerospace, Danaher Corporation, Philip Morris International, Verizon, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, Lockheed Martin, Sherwin-Williams

• Wednesday: Tesla, Coca-Cola, T-Mobile, Thermo Fischer Scientific, IBM, ServiceNow, NextEra Energy, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Boeing, General Dynamics, GE Vernova

• Thursday: S&P Global, Union Pacific, Honeywell, KKR, UPS, Northrop Grumman, Capital One

• Friday: Colgate-Palmolive

Here’s a look at economic data this week.

• Wednesday: September Existing Home Sales

• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. flash Services & Manufacturing PMI, September New Home Sales

• Friday: October Consumer Sentiment

Earnings Corner 📜 

Trending Up 📈 

Netflix (NFLX) had great earnings, reporting revenue of $9.83B that was up 15% y/y and a jump in operating margins to 30% (vs. 22% last year). Half of new signups drove growth in the ad tier (up 35% y/y), as the ad tier option has unlocked a new group of consumers who otherwise wouldn’t have paid for Netflix. Additionally, Netflix expects 4Q revenue to be up by over 15%. Shares closed the day up by over 11%. Overall, Netflix has successfully executed on their ad-tier plan and password sharing crackdown plan, driving shares to a 307% rally from the 2022 lows

Blackstone (BX) reported earnings that beat estimates, with revenue of $3.65B up 54% y/y (vs. $3.54B expected) and EPS of $1.02 (vs. $0.91 expected). The firm saw quarterly inflows of $41B, while committing $54B – its largest amount in over 2 years, thanks to falling interest rates and a revival in dealmaking activity. The stock was up 7.9% at Friday’s close, hitting an all-time high

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) reported earnings that beat estimates, with revenue of $2.04B up 17% y/y (vs. $2.01B expected) and EPS of $1.84 (vs. $1.64 expected). Procedures performed using the company’s flagship product, the da Vinci surgical robot, grew 18%, boosting sales of single-use instruments and accessories used in operations. The stock was up 10% at Friday’s close, hitting an all-time high

Procter & Gamble (PG) reported earnings that beat estimates, with revenue of $21.74B down 1% y/y (vs. $21.91B expected) and EPS of $1.93 (vs. $1.90 expected). However, mgmt. noted that Chinese sales slumped 15%, as economic weakness in P&G’s second largest market hurt consumer demand. The stock fell on the news but was flat at Friday’s close

TSMC (TSM) reported earnings that beat estimates, with revenue of $23.5B up 36% y/y (vs. $23.4B expected) and EPS of $1.94 (vs. $1.80 expected). Strong smartphone and AI-related demand for chips drove performance, with mgmt. noting that TSMC’s AI-related sales have seen the “deepest and widest growth of anyone in this industry.” The stock hit an all-time high Friday and was up 7% at the close

Trending Down 📉 

American Express (AXP) reported earnings that beat estimates, with revenue of $16.64B up 8% y/y (vs. $16.67B expected) and EPS of $3.49 (vs. $3.28 expected). The company’s wealthier cardholder base has allowed it to maintain lower provisions for credit losses, which, together with cost discipline and reduced incentives spending, led to margin expansion over the quarter. The stock was down 3.2% at Friday’s close

Ally Financial (ALLY) reported earnings that beat estimates, but mgmt. warned that coming quarters will be “choppy” as credit losses remain high, and the online bank and auto lender tightens underwriting standards. The stock was down 2.3% at Friday’s close

Elevance Health (ELV) reported earnings that missed estimates due to elevated costs in the insurer’s Medicare business, driving the stock down 13.3% at Friday’s close

Tonight’s Headlines 🍿 

• Why it looks like the Fed made a mistake with its 50bps rate cut: The Inc. argues that the strong economic data and still-hot economy shows that the 50bps rate cut was a mistake. Some Analysts are arguing that the Fed cutting rates too soon adds a risk dynamic that could send inflation heating up again. However, 90% of the street expects a 25bps cut on November 7th and 75% of traders expect a 25bps cut in December.

• T.G.I Friday’s is seeking DIP financing as a bankruptcy is expected over the next couple of weeks. The dining chain has long struggled to compete with fast-casual counterparts like Cava and Chipotle. Alongside Red Lobster and Hooters, T.G.I. Friday’s also struggled with COVID-era closures

• Chobani priced $650mm in PIK Toggle Bonds at a 8.75% cash interest rate, and a 9.5% PIK coupon rate, lower than initial price talk of 9.5%-9.75%. The Company announced that they would be PIK-ing the CCC+ debt immediately, as opposed to making 8.75% cash coupons

• Tech Companies continue to push towards nuclear, with major firms such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI investing in nuclear to power AI data centers. They see nuclear as a stable, clean energy source that aligns with sustainability goals and supports the high energy demands of AI operations

• Amazon is serious about their 5-day RTO policy. Amazon’s AWS CEO told those complaining to quit if you don't want to return to office. This underscores Amazon’s firm stance on reversing remote work flexibility and maintaining an office-centric culture

• Meta laid off 24 workers that were abusing a $25 meal stipend. Some Meta workers (including one making $400k/year) were buying items like toothpaste and wine glasses instead of meals. Penny wise, pound foolish….This follows some recent layoffs at WhatsApp and Instagram

• AI detectors have been falsely accusing students of cheating. AI detectors like Turnitin and GPTZero can create false positives and drive students to intentionally make mistakes in order to avoid being falsely accused

• Boeing machinists will vote on a new proposal with 35% raises that could end the ongoing strike. The proposal would lift Boeing out of a month-long breakdown in exchange for improved signing bonuses, guaranteed minimum annual bonus payouts, and higher 401(k) contributions

• Cigna and Humana are resuming merger talks after discussions broke down last year. Together the two companies have a market cap of ~$125B. While, Humana focuses primarily on Medicare Advantage, which is the fastest-growing segment of the health insurance market, Cigna has a stronger presence in commercial insurance and plays a relatively minor role in the Medicare sector

• CVS has a new CEO and he’s begging for employee support. The new CEO of CVS, Chris Tosi, is actively engaging employees and seeking their support as he navigates the company through a period of restructuring. In an internal memo, he emphasized a renewed focus on employee well-being, hoping to unite the workforce amid ongoing challenges and cost-cutting efforts

• Lamb Weston, a potato & french-fries company, is being pushed by activist hedge fund Jana Partners to pursue a sale. This sent shares up by over 10% on Friday. Lamb Weston, a major supplier of frozen products to fast-food chains like McDonald's, recently announced plans to reduce production capacity and lay off employees due to lower-than-expected restaurant traffic and demand

• The Bank of Canada is likely to cut rates by 50bps next week, from 4.25% to 3.75%

• The Bear Cave, a bearish report publication, accused Short Seller Hindenburg of plagiarism. Hindenburg hit back accordingly — apparently Nate Anderson has never read Edwin Dorsey’s blog, as both publications have been zoning in on potential misconduct at Roblox lately

• Elon Musk has announced that his newly created pro-Trump America PAC will distribute $1 million daily to a randomly selected registered voter in swing states until Election Day. The recipients will be chosen from signatories of a petition advocating for free speech and the right to bear arms

• A high-stakes showdown is unfolding in Japan's M&A market as private equity titans KKR and Bain Capital battle for control of Fuji Soft, a $4 billion software company. KKR, with 32.7% of the stock, has the backing of Fuji Soft’s board and initially offered ¥8,800 per share. However, Bain’s higher offer of ¥9,450 per share has intensified the contest, stirring speculation of a bidding war. With Fuji Soft’s real estate assets and strategic investors like 3D and Farallon in play, this clash marks a pivotal moment in Japanese corporate takeovers

• The American Psycho “remake” found its director. Luca Guadagnino, known for directing Challengers and Call Me By Your Name, has been selected to direct an American Psycho movie. Apparently this won’t be a remake, but it is expected to be a new adaptation of the original novel. Either way, a lot of Finance Bros are not happy about the new movie

M&A Transactions💭 

FitCrunch, producer of nutrition-based food products, was acquired for $700.0M by 1440 Foods Company.

Zuora (NYS: ZUO), provider of cloud-based software, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.7B by Silver Lake and GIC. Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NAS: USAP), manufacturer and marketer of semi-finished and finished steel products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $539.0M by Aperam (LUX: APAML). TD Cowen advised on the sale.

Turboscale, developer of custom AI models, was acquired for $150.0M by ShiftPixy (NAS: PIXY).

N Brown Group (LON: BWNG), an apparel, footwear, and homeware retailer, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $252.43M by Falcon 24 Topco. Shore Capital Group advised on the sale.

Motivair, manufacturer of cooling systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $850.0M by Schneider Electric (PAR: SU). Lazard advised on the sale.

ITsavvy, provider of integrated information technology products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $400.0M by Xerox (NAS: XRX).

Crown Technical Systems, manufacturer of power distribution and protection systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $325.0M by Flex (NAS: FLEX).

American Megatrends International, provider of UEFI and remote management firmware, was acquired for $600.0M by Thomas H. Lee Partners. Bank of America and Deutsche Bank advised on the sale.

The Charcuterie Division of What’s Cooking Group was acquired for $110.55M by Aurellius Group.

Tepsa, operator of bulk-liquid storage facilities, was acquired for $414.55M by I Squared Capital.

Folding Space, a commercial products company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $113.43M by Yaoshibang (HKG: 09885).

The Clinical Services Business Division of Avantor was acquired for $650.0M by Audax Private Equity. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Art Home, provider of comprehensive architectural and construction services, was acquired for $211.0M by Business One Holdings (FKA: 4827).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Treeline Biosciences, developer of transformative precision medicines, raised $421.78M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Terray Therapeutics, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $120.0M of Series B venture funding led by NVentures and Bedford Ridge Capital.

Eruditus Executive Education, provider of executive education programs, raised $150.0M of Series F venture funding led by TPG at a pre-money valuation of $2.85B.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

See you Thursday!